Thank you

Thank you for signing up to get updates from us! Please take a look at some of our existing blog posts!

 

 

 

 

 

In these two charts you can see the comparison with prior years

Jeffrey:

I’m here again with Patrick Rocca who’s with Bosley real estate. And at this point in the market, it’s at June, 2022, there have been some really interesting developments that Patrick and I are going to talk about. So Patrick, maybe you could introduce yourself and what you do with Bosley real estate.

Patrick:

Sure. Good morning, Jeff. Patrick Rocca with Bosley real estate here in Leaside and Davisville. I’m a broker 30 years in the business and yeah, very interesting times for sure.

Jeffrey:

Yeah, you reached out to me last week and we usually schedule these calls about, you know, once a quarter, every six months or so, but there’s been some interesting things that have happened recently. So why don’t you catch us up on what’s been happening?

Patrick:

Yeah, I think the last time we talked was back in I wanna say February, March, but and, and things were chugging along and, you know, and the market was crazy and stuff was selling, you know, in days multiple offers crazy overing. It, it it’s changed. The shift happened, I wanna say about 30 days ago in, in, in our neighborhood anyways. I mean the outside of the city has been noticing it since April even late March. But the activity has really waned. You know, we’re still, we still are lacking inventory and there there’s a bit more than there was before. I mean, there was very, very limited inventory. But right now what’s happened is the, the activity on listings has dropped dramatically. And just to put it into perspective, I, I had a semi-detached in Davisville in late February, early March had about 97 showings over seven days.

Patrick:

A couple of weeks later I had one in Leaside and I had 51 showings in seven days. And just in May, beginning of May, I had one in Leaside as well, where I was down to 31 showings a day. So you, you can see where the activity went from, you know, 97 showings to 31 showings literally within 30 days. And but the prices were still good. I mean, those semis, all three of those semis at that time sold for record prices, but what’s happened now and I it’s almost like someone hit the light switch last week. The activities is, is  I mean, I have a listing in north Leaside offers where last Monday I haven’t had a showing since wow, I never got offers. And I have, I had one last night in Cabbagetown we had 9, 8, 9 offers or sorry, eight, nine showings. And we got one offer. And you know, I have one this evening in, in Leaside, I think I’ve had six showings in a week. Huh. So it’s, it’s really changed. It’s really, really changed.

Jeffrey:

Yeah. And I’ve seen a few charts on market activity year over year change. So from May, 2021 to 22 in this one for Toronto resales, it’s down 40% with barely any new listings. So I think there’s probably a, a few factors which are interconnected, not the least of which is the inflation and interest rate hikes by the bank. But what, what are you hearing on the ground? Are you hearing from buyers that now they’re thinking that it’s a buyer’s market and they can wait it out?

Patrick:

Well, I mean, just before we address that, I mean, you’re right. I mean, you know, inflation interest rates. I mean, honestly, you know, we knew interest rates were going to go up. So I, I, I personally think that that was kind of built in and yes, inflation is real and what I think is, and, and, and I, I, I truly believe this. And what I think has really been hurting the market is the fear that the media has been putting into buyers. I mean, I just read an article last week and I actually posted it on my social media. It was just so ridiculous. It, it, it, it was from I think, better homes and garden or something talking about how, you know, we’re going back to the nineties. I mean, it’s, I’m like, wow, where, where are you getting this stuff? I mean, the fear that the media’s printing about the market, I mean, we’re still up from last year.

Patrick:

Yes, we’re down from last month, but I mean, and yes, things have slowed down and yes, the market has changed, but we’re not talking a crash here. You know, not yet anyways <laugh>, but I mean, honestly, and I, and I think that it it’s that, you know, it’s that perception that, you know, people read stuff and then they get scared and they say, okay, yeah. I mean, and buyers are saying, yeah, it’s, is it a buyer’s market? It’s not quite a buyer’s market yet. It’s, it’s, it’s a, I I’d still say it’s a seller’s market, but it’s getting pretty even. But there are great opportunities. I mean you know, you look at my, my, the listing that I had last week in, in, in Leaside and I, and I had an agent, you know, I listed that at a million, 4 29, and that would’ve sold for 1,000,007, you know, four, six weeks ago.

Patrick:

And we got no offers and I had an agent come to me, and this is the other problem, too. It’s a lot of agents haven’t been through this market before, so they don’t know what to do. So I have an agent that came to me and was talking about bringing an offer. And she was telling me that the market’s changed. Well, yeah, no kidding. And then she starts saying, she’s going to low ball because prices have dropped. And I’m like, you know, you can get this house for a better price and you could have got it for a month ago. And, you know, it’s, you know, I don’t come to me and say, you’re going to gimme a hundred thousand less, cuz the market’s changed. You’re getting this already for probably a hundred thousand less; not 200 less. So there there’s this just perception of there driven by the media and driven by inexperienced agents who, who don’t have control over their clients. And that’s unfortunate. But there are some, there are some good deals out there to be had for buyers.

Jeffrey:

Absolutely. And I think keeping in mind what you said about prices, if you look at the past three years, as you said, even in a, you know, February, March, they were high points for the, the average resale home price. But if you look even at may, like you said, we’re still up over last year, 2021. And so if people think it’s going to be returned to, you know, 2019 or, or 10 90, 90, I don’t think that’s going to happen even because there’s always going to be a gap between, you know, what you say in, in terms of what people think a house is worth and what the market actually does say it’s worth. And you know, I think we saw this a couple of years ago, you and I were talking and then there was a, a slowdown after a, a seller’s market. And people were saying that the world was ending and, you know, sellers are all going to be, you know, wishing that they hadn’t put their houses on the market and we didn’t see it. And then prices have been up 20, 30, 40% since then. So over the long term, like you said, you know, it, it really pays if you’re a buyer to think long term and not try to, you know, look at this as a fire sale trying to get a deal. Because I think that that sellers over the past couple of years, hopefully have realized that there is still a lot of value and, and people aren’t going to take 20, 30% haircut on, on what their house was worth just back in March and April.

Patrick:

Yeah. I mean, if you’re, if you’re a flipper, if you’re an investor in, in, in, in, in wanting to sell something in a year. Yeah. You, you could, you could take a bit of a hit, but if you’re in this long term, which most people are you know, you’re fine. I mean, like you said, our dips are short lived. You know, you go back to seven, 2017 when they put in the foreign tax, we had a dip and guess what came back within a few months, look at COVID. I mean, COVID, we had a complete dip and look what happened during, you know, for six weeks, eight weeks. And then all of a sudden in the midst of a pandemic, we came roared back. And, you know, if we have another little dip, it’s, it’s a great little opportunity now for, for buyers. I mean, if, if you’re selling, you have to be realistic. You have to understand that, you know, listen, you might not get you. You’re still going to get more than what you got last year than you would’ve got last year, but you’re not likely going to get this two, three, 400,000 over that you may have gotten in, in February, March

Jeffrey:

And you know, if we can see that listings come back up and there’s more product, I think that, you know, both buyers and sellers will be happy for a, a more balanced market. I, I think from a buyer’s point of view, what’s really still a bit daunting is going into a multiple offer situation or a seller that’s priced very low to start a bidding war. And if your agent isn’t experienced at dealing with this, you know, they may be advising their sellers on the complete wrong strategy for getting a house.

Patrick:

Yeah. A hundred percent. And then, and we’re seeing that now. I mean, it’s, it’s, again, you know, there’s agents that have been in the business 3, 4, 5 years, and they really don’t know what a downturn is and, and they, they, they’re not advising their clients properly. And, you know, if, if you’re on the buy side right now, you should be telling your clients that there, there is opportunity here. And you know, if you’re working on the sell side, you have to be, you know, realistic with your sellers and say, listen, you know the market’s changed a bit. And I had one on the weekend where I, you know, I got a bully offer and I said to my sellers, you know what, this is a good offer. You should take this. And they did. So I think that’s, that’s really key.

Jeffrey:

And I think that from a, from a buyer’s point of view, I was just looking at something in, in the Davisville area. And it’s admittedly one of the, the smaller properties in the market, but it’s priced significantly lower than anything that I’ve seen for months. So, I mean, is there is their agent trying to start a bidding war? Is that going to be a successful strategy? What I’ve heard is that if you can’t start a bidding war, they’ll take it off the market and put it back on and what they think they should get. But really, I mean, again from agent experience is the bidding war scenario still viable these days, if it’s looking like there’s, there’s less and less demand sorry, less and less increase in prices month over month.

Patrick:

Well, I think that that’s a strategy that has changed. And when I say it has changed, I mean, I, I, I pivoted just in the last seven days, 10 days, I mean, where I was having offer dates up until about a week or so ago. I’m actually, I’m doing one this evening and it was it’s, it’s, you know, it’s a different scenario. So that I can’t get into, but if I’m pricing now, I’m not, I’m pricing to market. I’m not pricing low. And I’m not doing an offer date, a hard offer date I’m doing offers at any time. I think that that’s the strategy that you have to go with. I mean, if you would’ve asked me this two weeks ago, I would’ve said you know, no, we’re still good with offer dates, but now I’m, I’m saying, you know, bring it

Jeffrey:

Yeah. And, and it’s not such a, a nail biter, even for the sellers, you know, in this market, not getting an offer on offer. Date is a little bit of a confidence hit. If you think your product is priced well, and you still don’t get an offer, you know, there’s, some definite some head scratching that’s going to go on in that date.

Patrick:

Yeah. I mean, and it’s yeah. It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s frustrating. I mean, I, like I said, I’ve got one on Leaside right now that I haven’t had a showing in a week and, you know, we never got an offer. Excuse me, on offer date. It was shocking. I was actually quite surprised

Jeffrey:

I mean, that, like you said, through the pandemic, we saw that sort of 10% dip in prices, but six, eight weeks later, they started to come back and there’s still the demand. And I think we’ve talked about this a number of times is that there’s just in, in this area Leaside and Davisville, there’s just not a lot of supply desirable area and not a lot of products that are coming onto the market. And so, you know, when, when buyers get frustrated 1, 2, 3, 4 times that they don’t get the, the, the right house that they’ve been looking at and kind of, you know, they’re getting close to their timelines. Things are going to move and, and people are getting a bit anxious. And so, you know, whether now buyers are saying, we’ve got the revenge on sellers, or they’re thinking that this is more of a long term trend. I, I, I don’t know what the next couple of months are going to be, whether we’ll see a return to, to more balance or not.

Patrick:

Yeah. Well, I, I think that that’s, what’s, what’s going to happen. I mean I, I don’t think it’s buyers revenge yet. But I can tell you it’s getting quite even, I mean, let’s be honest. I mean, yearly, I mean, I always say to people the best time to sell your house is, you know, February, March, early April we are into June now. I mean you know, the market does start to slow down around mid-June end of June because, you know, summer’s here people and especially more so this year people are traveling. So it it’s really hard to say what’s going to happen. I mean, it normally slows down around now anyways. So we’re not going to really know the, the real impact or effect in the market. I don’t think until fall. I mean, normally you can say, oh yeah, fall, everything comes back. It’s, it’s all good, you know, week or two after labor day and kids are back in school and the market picks up again and roars through until November, I don’t know this year. I can’t predict that that’s the problem, because like you said, the next couple of months, I mean, aside from the fact that, you know, rates are going to probably go up again and all the negativity in the press, but I mean, we’ve got summer holidays and, and people are, I know lots of people, including myself that are traveling.

Jeffrey:

Yeah. And, and I think that’s that pent up demand for getting out the city and, and not having to think about things like, you know, buying a house and moving is very, very attractive after the past couple of years. And so I, I agree, I think maybe in the fall it could be something where, it’s one or the other people are slow to get back into it, or they look at it and they said, okay, I think now in the fall, we’ve seen what’s happened over the past couple of months with, you know, inflation or, or other you know, you know international factors. And they may be, they may be ready to actually bite the bullet, so to speak and go ahead and, and purchase. So it’s, it’s very difficult, but I guess the same question back to, for, for a seller, if you’re looking to distinguish yourself to stand out in a market, so obviously fair pricing, but are there anything that they could do in terms of the, the fabric of the house of, of the yard to really help that listing stand out about above others?

Patrick:

Well, presentation is always one of the key factors when you’re selling a house interior and exterior. I mean, you know, curb appeal very, very important this time of year with you know, landscaping, good landscaping you know, it’s, I think it’s critical in interior wise. Again, it depends on the property if you know, I’ve in the past month, I’ve sold stunning houses and I sold, you know, what I would call the train wreck, so something’s going to be torn down. So something’s going to be torn down. You don’t normally do anything to it other than, you know, clean it out and, and, and do your photos and your, and your whatnot. But you know, I, I have one coming out next week in Leaside, it’s $3 million house. And, you know, we’re doing some, some landscaping, we’re doing some painting and touchups, and there’s not, there’s not a whole lot that needs to be done to this house.

Patrick:

It’s, it’s going to be beautiful. And we’re professionally staging it. I mean, when I say professionally staging, it’s not, you know, bringing in a few pieces of furniture from your garage and, and whatnot. It’s, it’s, I work with a, you know, arguably the best designer and stager in the city. And she stages all my homes that required, I mean, some homes you can’t stage, or you shouldn’t stage because it’s just not worth it. I mean, if it’s going to be torn down, it’s, it’s, it’s going to be a, a complete Reno, there’s no point in staging it, but I think that those things are really important. You know, and, and, and as you know, I mean, the things kitchens and bathrooms sell houses. So I mean, you know, I’m not talking about kitchen and bathroom rentals to go to market, but I mean, they must shine and they must sparkle

Jeffrey:

That’s, that’s good advice at, at any time. And you know, just making sure that you stand out. I, I think at least now, hopefully from the, the market point of view, you don’t just have to put a house on the market and say it’s within a certain area and you’re guaranteed to get offers. Because, you know, I, I, we always talk about this, the, the speculation of, you know, I will be in a house and I know that in three years, four years I’ll be able to sell it for more than I bought it for. You know, that’s sort of been the mantra for years now. You can almost count on yearly price increases year over year. So if you bought a property in say 2018, you know, you could sell it for more in 20, 22, that’s almost been the case, but like, we’ve talked about you, everyone needs a place to live and, you know, you, you kind of have to factor in that, along with the investment opportunity for a house.

Patrick:

Yeah. Long term, you’re always going to be ahead of the game. I mean, it’s just, it’s, it’s, there’s nothing to be concerned about. I mean, you know, yeah. It’s down from last month and if you bought, you know, six, eight weeks ago, is it down a bit maybe but are you selling next year? I mean, it doesn’t matter. I mean, the Mar I mean, we’re up, we’re still up, I think, 9% over last year. I mean, month over month, month to month, right? Like if you look at May of last year compared to May of this year, we’re up, I still think 10%. I mean, so are we going togo back to more realistic, you know, increases and, and year over year, like three, four, 5% probably. I mean, the numbers that were were happening were sort of unsustainable in my opinion, but I mean, you’re fine if you’re in this, you know, longer term and I mean, all these buyers that are worried about, you know, did I, did I pay too much? Well, no, you didn’t pay too much. You know, and, and, you know, having conversations with clients who have, you know, that have bought and sold, and, you know, I say to them, ask yourself, did the person who bought your house pay too much  so it’s all relative, right? Yeah.

Jeffrey:

Yeah. And, and like you said, if you take a long term view in two years, three years, will you be asking yourself, did I pay too much? Well, history is, has said that, you know, as we’ve seen these downturns things have come back. And so I, I do think like we’ve talked about the longer term view is one which, you know, over time, like the stock market you’re, you’re going to do. Okay.

Patrick:

Yeah. I mean, honestly, I was talking to a client last week and I, and I jokingly said, listen, I bought, like, I bought several houses, but my last house that I’ve bought in the house that I’m living in now, I bought it like 12, 15 years ago. And at the time I, I was the idiot that paid the most on the street  and I knew that, and my neighbor kindly reminded me of that. because I think two weeks before he paid more but anyways, long story short, my house is worth triple what I paid for it. Right. So it’s, it’s, it doesn’t matter. I mean, you, you know, if you’re there and you, and you’re, you’re not one of these builders, that’s buying a bungalow for 2 million. Yeah. The bungalow might go to 1.7, but, you know, if you have to flip it and I mean, that, those are the people that maybe could, could be, or, or will get caught but yeah, year over year, you’re always going to be fine.

Jeffrey:

Yeah. Yeah. I, I agree. Long term view, especially in these types of markets will, will be kind of the, the, the equalizer, I hope at least. And, and we’ll definitely talk about this on, on our next call. So Patrick, if people want to get ahold of you, what’s the best way to reach you?

Patrick:

Best way to reach me is through my office here at Bosley at 416-322-8000 or subsequently you can email me, I’m always on my phone mail@patrickrocca.com

Jeffrey:

All right, perfect. Patrick, it’s always a pleasure to chat and thank you for, for sharing what you’re seeing on the ground. Always interesting. And looking forward to our next chat.

Patrick:

Absolutely. Take care, Jeff, nice talking to you as well.

 

 

Jeffrey       

I’m here with Patrick Rocca. And today we’re going to talk about, is there light at the end of the COVID tunnel? We’ve been talking regularly over the past couple of years and every time we talk, there’s something a bit different in the Davisville and Leaside, real estate market here in Toronto. Now, Patrick, I wonder if you could quickly introduce yourself.

Patrick       

Sure. Good morning. Jeff Patrick Rocca with Bosley real estate here in Leaside and Davisville. One of the top agents in the area. And with regards to light at the end of the tunnel, I’m not sure the lights ever went off in the tunnel.

Jeffrey       

Yeah, I understand. It seemed like at least in 2020, when it first started, there were a couple of weeks where there was a, a huge downturn as both buyers and sellers really didn’t know what to expect, but then, you saw, and a lot of the other agents saw a rebound in, in the market as people started to get with it and understand, that maybe this wasn’t going away anytime soon, but still, if you need to move, you’re going to have to find a place to live.

Patrick       

Yeah. It’s been a very, very interesting run for the last 18-20 months. I mean, it continues to defy all odds. The prices can continue to increase. I mean, it’s just when, when will it end? I mean, and I don’t see it ending anytime soon. I mean, this is strictly a supply issue always has been and the supply is even tighter as we speak today. I mean, I’ve never seen it this tight in my 28 years in the business.

Jeffrey       

Yeah. And we’re seeing a lot of that driven by a bunch of different factors. we, we talked at the beginning of pandemic about people kind of moving out of the city, realizing that they could work from anywhere. And then we saw some folks coming back into the city. But as you, you, as you say, this supply is the definitely limited, I mean, the amount of, of new homes getting constructed in the GTA is, is never a, a large amount. And especially in this core of the city, there is very few things except condos, which are in construction.

Patrick       

Correct. And the government talks in their infinite wisdom about how they’ll fuel the market and, and whatnot, and they talk about taxes, and they talk…. Well, none of that’s going to help until they start building more product. And yes, condos are being built and they’re on the rise, but I mean, we need single family houses as well. It’s not a good situation.

Jeffrey       

And the, the interest rates, the government bank of Canada has signaled that they’re going to be looking to increase rates to cope with rapid rise in inflation. And I think we talked about this back in the summer, you mentioned it’s never a bad idea to go out and get pre-approved just in case something happens with the rates. Do you see anything happening sort of in the short to midterm in terms of rate rise?

Patrick       

I would be actually shocked quite frankly, if we don’t see a rate hike in the next 30 days I think we’re due for it in March or April and, and quite frankly, again, I don’t know what impact that’ll have on the market. So I mean, , just to give you, I mean, they’re talking about two or three or four rate hikes in a row. So let’s say the quarter point or, half a point, let’s say they add up to three quarters of a point. I mean, honestly, is it going to knock some people out of the markets? It, it, it may, it’s going to fuel people to get into the market. And, and again, there is nothing on the market, but I, I’ve been talking to a few people in, in the past couple of weeks because there is concern, about rates going up and what should people do? And I mean, our price is going to drop, should people wait? I absolutely don’t see that happening and I’ll just, I’ll use one of my recent listings on, on Millwood Road. About two weeks ago semidetached unfinished basement. We listed at a 1.399M. We had 97 showings in a week

Patrick       

We sold it for 1.8, a record for a semi without an addition in Davisville. So, let’s hypothetically say that rates jump a point and you lose half of those buyers. You still got 45 buyers in the market that are looking something that doesn’t exist. and there’s just, and again, it all goes back to supply. I mean, right now in Leaside seven listings, Davisville 14, and a lot of those listings are retreads. When I say retreads, they’ve been on and off the market for the last several months. Right. Anything that’s good that comes out priced well sells immediately. So again, I don’t know if the, the, the rate thing is going to do anything. ultimately it, it always, it always does knock some people out of the market, but I just don’t see that happening.

Patrick       

And I mean, I’ve been always known to be the eternal optimist, but I, again, I just don’t see it. I mean’s fundamentals aren’t there. So, I think if you’re selling, it’s a great time to sell if you’re buying. Yeah. You, you, you want to buy, I mean, you want to try and get in now, because I just don’t see it changing. I mean, if you wait, it, let’s say you waited from like November to now to buy, we’re already up 10% in the first six weeks of this year. I mean, so, I mean, you waited for what you waited for prices to rise and, it’s, it’s kind of a, a double-edged sword, right?

Jeffrey       

Yeah. And, and I’ve been noticing there’s still a lot of renovation activity, construction activity within Davisville and Leaside. And I’m wondering, if given what’s happened, the people who’ve, moved out of the GTA are kind of moved out now and people are really staying put, and they’re saying, “Do I want to move if I don’t have to?” But yet there is still that demand. So, like you said, the supply is dwindling for, for these resale houses. And, people are thinking, well, I want the city and I know that this thing is going to end at a certain point in time, but I’ve been looking and I’ve got shutout of, you know a bidding, four or five times. So how am I going to be able to get the house that I want in the neighborhood that I want? So, people are really starting to ask that question. And are you seeing that people’s expectations are changing about really what they can buy in terms of buying a real fixer upper or just anything they get their foot into?

Patrick       

Well, I am seeing that I’m having that conversation more. So, over the past couple weeks, I had a conversation with a client of mine last week and same sort of thing. They got a budget, 2.2 to 2.4 M. And right now, for that, you can’t get anything- it needs work. And, before Christmas, that might have been 2.0 or 2.1M. So, what I’m saying to people now is, try to tone down your expectation and get in the market, get in the location, find the house that is in a good location, and that you can work with over time and, and do the work. Because if you’re looking for the perfect house you’re going to pay. And I mean, even the non-perfect house, I mean, we’re seeing fixer uppers, like I said, selling for 2.3, 2.4M.

Jeffrey       

And that’s really an interesting development. And I know that, it’s been kind of I don’t want to say the tradition, it’s been common for buyers to forego home inspections, or if you’re dealing with a, a reputable seller, maybe they’ll have a home inspection done before. So, it’s not an impact, when, when you’re advising a buyer how important is a home inspection, especially if the, the word on the street is that you’ll have to do some work on this house.

Patrick       

Well, the home inspection is very important. There’s no doubt about it. And, and I think you touched on the point that most reputable agents supply a home inspection. I mean, all my listings, I pay for a home inspection. That’s just the way it is, because I don’t want to have to go through number one, it takes two, three hours to do an inspection when you’ve only got a five or six day window to market a property. I can, as a listing agent afford to block off three hours for one agent, I’m doing 30-minute appointments now, no double bookings because of COVID. So, I mean, I’m supplying the inspection, interestingly enough, as you go outside of the 416. For example, my, my buyer agent was showing some property 905 yesterday. Those agents they’re either too cheap or lazy. And I hate to say that, but they’re not supplying home inspections. I mean, I was looking I was down in Niagara region last week. And I looked at a couple houses, not one of them had home inspection, so I would’ve had to do my own, which I, I find rather bizarre. So, I mean, in the 416 the good agents are, are supplying the home inspection. And I think it’s critical. And if you have, if they don’t and you have to do one, you’ve got to do it.

Jeffrey       

And that highlights an interesting situation that I see sometimes you see a real estate listing and the agent is not from the area. And I’m a little bit perplexed. I understand maybe that somebody has a friend or relative that’s maybe a operates another area, but I still think that local knowledge is, is very important because even if you’re a real estate agent, you’re licensed to sell a house, if you’re a seller or buyer, you may not be getting all the information you need about the market. Even if you do look at the comps on MLS.

Patrick       

Oh, a hundred percent. I’ve always been a big proponent of being a local and hiring someone local. I mean, case in point, like I said, I was looking at some houses in Niagara region. I mean, I’m not representing myself. I’m going to hire someone who’s local, who, who, who can assist me and talk to me about values and about, what’s going on in the community. And I see a time and time again, where they hire the friend of or the cousin of the friend of the next-door neighbor. And they’re not even from the area. And you see that you see a lot of 905 agents coming into the 416 and vice versa doing listings. And I just don’t agree with that.

Patrick       

And I mean, the agents that are coming into the 416 that are doing them, that aren’t from the area, and they’re not even doing home inspections. I mean, it’s just, it’s not good. It’s really not good. I mean, and I personally run into this all the time. It’s not a new phenomena. I mean, I’ve just recently in the last couple of weeks, lost a few listings because of this, because of, a friend of a friend or, it’s just bizarre are. And, and I watched the houses and I watched ’em come to market. And one in particular was in the market a few weeks ago in Davisville. And it was just not marketed properly. And it sold in my opinion for a hundred grand, less than what it should have. So, I mean, but people make decisions for a reason, right? It,

Jeffrey   :   

Yeah. And, and even, you’re, you’re mentioning the seller side, that may be a significant price hit, but also on the buyer side, when you’re going up against, like you said, you had 90 showings, how many offers did you get? You, you really need someone to say, is this enough? And also, how much is too much, if you go in with your best and final offer, you need someone who really has a sense of not only the, the property, the neighborhood, but also the other agent, like, what is, what is their strategy, if you you’ve ever kind of been on the other side of a deal from them?

Patrick   :   

Yeah, no, that’s, it’s really important. I mean, and on the buy side, I have a, an agent that works with me. She’s my buyer rep. And she’s very knowledgeable. She’s very good. She advises clients accordingly. You need that knowledge as a buyer agent. I mean, I do primarily listings, but I, like I said, I have a buyer agent. I mean, as a agent, you need to know the area. I’ve heard nightmare stories about buyers who have bought houses and their agent didn’t even know that there was a condominium going in the backyard.

You hear these nightmare stories all the time. And I mean, it, it’s one thing to, to, to try and think you’re going to make a quick buck. If you, if you go to Hamilton to show a house, but you, if you don’t know Hamilton, or if you don’t know the market, why would you,

Jeffrey   :   

Yeah. And, and that is another great point is that there’s a lot of intensification going on. we see it in Davisville close to the, the main streets. The city is really promoting densification because really there’s nowhere to go, but up. And so you see that the, the condos and the, the multi-families are starting to, I don’t say encroach, but they’re starting to get more common in these traditional single family house areas. And you’re absolutely right. If you don’t know the development a calendar what’s going on, your, your view may blocked by a shadow of a condo, and you may not have any recourse because that was approved under the previous owner.

Patrick   :   

Yep. A hundred percent. And then again, I see that quite frequently and it’s yeah. It’s not good. I do want to sort of backtrack for a second touch on one of your other points about people staying put and people doing renovations. I mean, obviously you probably see that at a bit more from your field, but I mean, personally, interestingly enough, I’m seeing a lot of renovations on, I don’t know who these people are. I don’t have clients calling me saying, “Patrick, I’m staying, I’m not, I’m not doing this. I’m not looking for something else.” I still have people that are wanting to move, but they can. Cause there is nothing. I mean, I’ve had clients in the past year, literally that had to wait for more than a year to find what they wanted because there was nothing available. Now I have heard of a few people that are doing renovations, but it’s not, I’m not seeing that right now. I don’t know if you are, but it’s not becoming a, the hell with this. I’m not getting involved in this market. I’m staying, I’m going to add on, I haven’t seen that as much yet. 

Jeffrey   :   

I would say about 50 / 50. There’s a couple of homeowners in this area that are doing that, long term. And I think like, you, you, you mentioned they kind of are looking around and for them to get into a move up home where they’re going from like a three to four bedroom, they’re going to tack on an additional $1 million over the already, inflated sale price they’re going to get for, for their home if they want to stay in the neighborhood. So, they’re thinking, do I spend that on a new home where I know I’m going to have to do some work or do I put that money into an addition and, and kind of, re refinish or re remodel the space that I have. So, a bit of, a bit of half and half and the other half, obviously someone buys and they know they’re going to have to do work.

Patrick       

I’m seeing that. I’m seeing that people that are buying and then they want to do work right away. And as you know costs of construction and cost of materials have risen drastically in the last year or two. So, it’s what used to be, you know a $500,000 renovation is now a 7 to 750 thousand dollar renovation. You know what I mean? Because of costs. So, it’s yeah, it’s interesting.

Jeffrey       

And, and I think that people are, I don’t want to say becoming a little bit numb to that fact, but they’re saying, okay, I’m going, and I’m basing my addition on, spending a million dollars extra to get into a move up house. So, if I spend 800 grand, I’m doing okay, I’m like 200 less than I thought I’d have to spend, however, that is still a ton of money. And I find that when you invest so much into, with these original houses, depending on the street location, you may price yourself at the top of the market. What if you finish the renovation and you have to move, you really don’t want to be at the top of the market for a specific product.

Patrick       

Yeah, exactly. Specifically at the market, collapses a bit. Right.

Patrick       

But I mean, honestly, I just, I don’t know if that’s going to happen or when that’s going to happen. Interestingly enough, I was reading the Miami paper this morning Miami, Florida, and for the first time, and I don’t know how many years they actually had price drops in real estate which hasn’t happened. So, I don’t know when that’ll happen here, if that’ll happen different, obviously economics, different everything. But it’s interesting to see that it’s the first time I’ve heard of a market, that’s actually had a drop in prices, the Florida market. I follow because I have I’m invested there has been like crazy, like everywhere else. I mean, and it’s not just, like I said, many times when we’ve talked, it’s this isn’t a Toronto thing. This is a Canadian north American. I mean, prices are crazy everywhere. Right?

Jeffrey       

Yeah. And there’s different strategies for getting into the market. So, you’re seeing all sorts of people tapping different ways to get in. But I think we’ve been talking for, four or five years. And I think I ask every time, do you think the prices are going to go down and you say your crystal ball is broken and fell on the floor rolled under the couch. And we honestly, on average, we have seen it in this area, in the core of the city. It just hasn’t gone down. So you, you, this is exactly what you mentioned. If you want to buy don’t hold off thinking, you’ll be able to time some sort of price decrease.

Patrick       

Yeah, no, a hundred percent. I mean, I’ve, I’ve always been of the opinion. And like I said, I’ve been saying this to several of my clients recently get in the market. Once you’re in, it’s good. You can always move around or try to move around but get in because you know what you’re paying today for 1.2 is likely going to be 1.3, 1.4 in a year. So, you’re better to be in than to chase the market or wait for it to drop. Cause I, who knows when that’ll happen? Yeah. I mean the old crystal ball’s broken thing is still sort of true.

Jeffrey       

Yeah. Fantastic. So, Patrick, it’s always a pleasure. If any of our listeners want to get a hold of you, what’s the best way to find you?

Patrick       

Yeah. They can call me directly through my office at 416-322-8000. Ultimately the best way to get hold of me is by email. I’m always on my phone and I have my email rate connected to me. So, it’s mail@patrickrocca.com.

Jeffrey       

All right, Patrick fantastic chatting about where we are, and I know we’ll chat again soon and good luck with the rest of the spring market.

Patrick       

Thank you, Jeff. 

Patrick Rocca- Is the Toronto Summer Real Estate Market returning to Normal?

Jeffrey  :

I’m here again with Patrick Rocca, who is with Bosley Real Estate in Toronto. Although at the moment he’s taking some well-deserved RNR outside the city. Patrick, can you introduce yourself and tell our audience exactly what you do.

 

 

Patrick  :

Sure. Good morning. Jeff

Patrick Rocca with Bosley real estate. I work in the the Davisville Leaside market, predominantly Midtown area of Toronto. And yes, I am taking some R ‘n R. Well-Deserved and it’s been a crazy roller coaster over the last few months and just a little burnt out.

 

Jeffrey  :

I completely understand. There’s been a lot of ups and downs in the market in Toronto over the past 18 months or so, and I, I just saw a headline in the global mail talking about, perhaps we’ve just passed the peak of this bizarro market. Have you seen any signs of that in your real estate transactions?

 

Patrick  :

A hundred percent. Actually we started noticing it in May. If you look at the last two months statistics we started coming off a bit in May. I think it’s sort of a natural progression because we have, like you said, had such a crazy run. It’s been very, very busy price increases that are above the norm extremely above the norm. And I think now with the vaccine rollout and more people getting vaccinated and things starting to open up, people actually want to travel and they want to go away. So I think housing is maybe going to get pushed to the, to the back burner for the summer, at least. I mean, I anticipated before the may long weekend that I said to myself, if we have a slow weekend we’re back to a traditional market, which means, you know, long weekends people go away. Summer, July, August people go away. And I, and I know that’s going to be happening. I know people that have property in Niagara on the lake and prince Edward county the Airbnb and they’re, they’re booked all summer. So there’s been a noticeable slowdown. But like I said, I think we’re transitioning back to a traditional market, which is busy spring, slower summer. And I assume and trust it will pick up again in the fall.

 

Jeffrey  :

I do want to put your comments in context, when we say we see a report that says the market is slowing down, it’s slowing down from the Torrid crazy pace that it was back to something which is more normal, more seasonal year over year, which we saw oh, before the pandemic, for sure. But I was recently down in the Niagara area and I was having lunch with someone and there have been so many changes. He said over the year in terms of new housing starts new developments and people he’s been talking to have come in mostly from the GTA area, because they’re thinking now the new reality is they only have to commute into the city, you know, maybe two days a week. So if they need to do that, you know, commute on the highway for an hour and a half or two hours only twice a week, it makes it worthwhile to make that move down to you know, outside of the city. I would only talk about that before, you know, initially in the pandemic, there was a kind of a rush to get out of the city. Then we saw some folks moving back. Are you seeing any differences in the flows in and out of the city?

 

Patrick  :

It’s interesting that you ask that because I got an email yesterday from another publication asking me to do an interview. And if I was noticing any people that had moved out that are moving back in on, I have not noticed that what I have noticed is that there is still people moving out, maybe not at the pace they were last year. But I think it’s much too early to, to speculate whether people are going to say, okay, maybe I’m going to move back into the city because, you know, bosses want me actually in my office as opposed to online. So I think it’s a bit too early for that. I think maybe you’ll see those signs in 2022, but right now we’re still seeing people leave the city.

 

Jeffrey  :

And that’s my sense, as well as that, you know, especially in areas that we’re already seeing some, some overflow, some migrant net, inward migration, like Hamilton, it’s moving out to other places. And I think that people are now realizing that one of the outcomes of the pandemics is more flexibility in their work situation. And in a lot of cases, I know that friends, I have that work in insurance or banking, you know, their employers are saying that they don’t have to be in the officer or make an appearance in the office till September at the earliest. And that they are more flexible about who gets to work from where rather than, you know, the norm being in the office. And so over the long-term, do you think that that might affect housing prices in the GTA?

 

Patrick  :

I’m not sure. I can say though that I have been talking to people as well, and you are right. There are companies and corporations that are more flexible with their employees and allowing them to work remotely. But I’m also hearing that you know, like you said, September I’m, I’m hearing the same sort of thing. Maybe fall maybe early 2022, that, that companies and corporations are gonna want their employers back in the office or employees back in the office. I’m hearing that from, from, from the people. So if that happens, some of those people that moved to the Gulf, for example, maybe they’ll regret that move. And in that, in that commute if they have to go back into the office, full-time now that’s again, just hearing that from, from a few different people, but I think a lot of companies want to get back to him and norm whatever that is as soon as they can.

 

Jeffrey  :

And, and often it’s the, the workers who are able to work remotely, you know, that work in knowledge working type of scenarios that are able to be more flexible because if you work in, in a production facility, like a hands-on production facility, and perhaps you haven’t been in the facility now that things are ramping back up, you know, there are certain employment categories that, you know, you can’t really work remotely. So it D I guess it very much depends on the sector you’re in. And you know, the capabilities you have of that specific job function.

 

Patrick  :

A hundred percent. Yeah, I agree with that. And I also think employers, like I said, they want to try and get some sort of normalcy back in socialization. I mean, I mean, there’s, there’s more than just work and sitting behind a computer. There’s also the socialization in, in, in an office setting that, that works for a lot of employers.

 

Jeffrey  :

Yeah. And that’s exactly what I’ve been hearing too, is I do a fair amount of conversation with folks in the U S and they are definitely three months ahead of us. You know, they’re already, you know, back to pre-pandemic levels in terms of plane travel you know, airports, a busy offices are, are back up to 80% in terms of 80% occupancy. I just saw a recent stat. And so I think that they’re further along, we can maybe take a few looks at what they’re doing. You know, obviously their economic situation is quite a bit different than what we see in Canada, but, you know the thing you were talking about, people want to travel. There’s a lot of pent up demand for people going out to restaurants, people, you know, seeing friends having drinks, all that stuff that pent up demand I see is something which throughout the summer, you’re right. It might be taking a little bit of the heat off of the real estate market as people, you know, you know, get back to some of these normal activities.

 

Patrick  :

Yeah. And I think there’s, there’s, there’s good opportunities all around to it. And when it comes to that, I mean, like I said, it will be slower than the summer. There’s no doubt. I mean, I, I, I would be surprised otherwise, but I mean, that bodes well for buyers because this market has been strictly skewed to sellers and buyers have been having a real rough goal. Well, now if you’re listing your property and you have to sell in July or August you know, you may not, you may not do as well as you would have in, in April or may for sure. That’s just the reality. And I’m, I’m telling people right now, if they don’t have to shell, they should probably wait until fall. Because I think, I think that that’s when things will come back, like I said to a more traditional markets it’ll pick back up will be, hopefully there’ll be more inventory. We also have a lack of inventory and hopefully that’ll change in the fall market.

 

Jeffrey  :

Yeah. And, and that’s some of the similar advice that we’ve talked about in the past, and, you know, it’s rare that we S we say there may be an opportunity for buyers in the summer, and most of the time, there’s just so limited supply. There’s no product in desirable areas that buyers are just having to play by the sellers rules. So it’s good to hear, and maybe some balances coming back into the market, but I think it’s all relative. I was talking to somebody who was in the market for their first home. And they’re saying, how do people buy in this market? And what is driving this market? Like, is it international buyers? Is it, you know, people that are, you know being helped by, you know, family members, you know, is it any one thing which is predominantly moving the market?

 

Patrick  :

I wouldn’t say it’s just one thing. I mean, international, definitely off the table. I mean, there’s, there’s not much international buyers right now, although that could change with the opening of the borders. But I, I see, you know, several things you’ve mentioned. I mean, you know, people helping their children people moving from a condo to a house because they realized during the pandemic that they got to get the hell out of a condo and they want to have outdoor space. And you know, the reality is, is that there has not been a lot of supplies. So, and there there’s a lot of demand out there. Shockingly, it’s been, it’s been crazy since, since May of last year.

 

Jeffrey  :

Yeah. And that’s something that, that I definitely could have, could not have predicted because, you know, when the pandemic first hit, the first thought everyone had was like, my God, we’ve just got a hunker down. We can’t go out. And then, you know, like you said, as, as precautions came in, you know viewing schedule viewings were becoming the norm that people are actually coming out and actually you know, viewing these properties. And I think that, you know, on the seller side, a bit of reluctance to have folks in. And so the, the supply, which has already constrained trunk even more, which obviously drove up the prices and now, you know, like looking ahead to the fall, maybe we will see a bit more balanced, more supply coming onto the market as people aren’t as concerned about, you know, strangers coming through their homes

 

Patrick  :

I think, I think that’s quite possible. And yet we have, we’ve had to deal with that during COVID with precautions and people being nervous about, you know, not only having people in their home, but going to the home to buy, I mean, I have several binds that have been very cautious and about that. So, I mean, you know, like I said, opening up now, vaccinating, I think we’ll be, we’ll be changing. Hopefully sooner and later in, like you said, the fall probably be some you know, some more and the market will pick back up.

 

Jeffrey  :

And one of the things that, that we’ve been loath to do is kind of predict the interest rate policy, which you know, definitely influences the market, especially when you’re looking at properties that are in the seven figures and with all of the pent up demand and folks, you know, going back out and doing restaurants, traveling that sort of thing. There has been a sense that inflation is going to go up, which isn’t directly tied to the interest rate. But as one of the drivers, you know, if in fact that is something that people are worried about, how would you advise a buyer to protect themselves in case of rising rates?

 

Patrick  :

Well, I mean, you know, rates are so cheap right now. I mean, it’s just, it’s, it’s crazy. I mean, the most cautious approach would be to go take a long-term like a five-year or 10-year rate. But you know, the variable so low. I mean, I just, I can’t see it jumping so crazy that it that it would affect a lot of people. A variable has always been the way to go. But yeah, if you’re cautious and optimistic and worried about things obviously lock-in, I mean, I think even tinier your money ten-year money right now is just still ridiculous. Cheap, right?

 

Jeffrey  :

You know, if you’re thinking about fall and you want to get pre-approved, maybe go ahead and get that 120 day pre-approval, which will carry you into the fall. And, you know, you’ll have a bit of a, a bit of security if you do want to seriously start house hunting in the fall.

 

Patrick  :

Yeah, definitely. I mean, you definitely want to get pre-approved. I mean, we had a client tell us that their main pre-approval, but wouldn’t, wouldn’t allow them to buy anything with other conditional on finance. It’s just, you know, some banks are still doing that and it’s, it’s just not in the corner. I mean, it hurts, hurt the buyer puts them behind the 8-ball. It’s a bit frustrating when, when, when you’re dealing with something like that, but yeah, definitely pre-approvals are, are, are, are a definite must always have been. And yeah, lock it in now we can.

 

Jeffrey  :

So finally I know we’ve said over the past three, five years, the crystal ball is broken. It’s now rolled off the table under the couch. Any, any sort of predictions for, for the fall and maybe into 2022?

 

Patrick  :

Well, like you said, I mean, like I broke my crystal balls, but I think it’s slowly getting back together. So, I mean, if I had to make a prediction, I’m like who the hell knows? I will say that, like I said, I think we’re now heading back into a more traditional market, assuming everybody gets, we start to open up normally. And if we don’t have another lockdown, which scares the heck out of me in the fall I think we’re going to have a good fall market. And then I think it’s going to be a good spring market as well. I mean, honestly, and when I say good, does that mean that we’re going to see these crazy price increases that we’ve seen? I don’t think so. But I think it’s going to be a very healthy market and hopefully there’ll be some more supply as well for those buyers.

 

Jeffrey  :

Fantastic. So once again, keep fingers and toes crossed on that. You don’t see any strange developments and if any of our listeners do want to get a hold of you, what’s the best way to get ahold of you?

 

Patrick  :

Yeah, email’s always the best. mail@patrickrocca.com. Or you can call me directly at my office at 416-322-8000.

 

Jeffrey  :

All right, well, thanks again, Patrick. It’s been a pleasure. Definitely try to relax a little bit over the rest of the time you’re out of the city and we will definitely talk soon.

 

Patrick  :

Thank you so much.  Have a great day.